Project Success & Complexity
There are various project management methodologies to deliver projects. This implies that following a given methodology would deliver a successful project outcome. However, many projects fail. The question then is why do so many projects fail? Before this question can be answered, it is necessary to understand what project success is and what it looks like.
To measure project success (or failure), it is necessary to develop key success criteria against which the project can be benchmarked. If the stated scope of a project is delivered within budget and to schedule, has the project been successful? In other words, does balancing the ‘iron triangle’ of project management namely; budget, schedule and scope deliver project success?
There is evidence to indicate that this is rarely the case, especially for large complicated and complex projects. Project complexity has a significant effect on its success. Even simple projects can be turned into complicated or complex projects, for example by changing the delivery criteria of a design project with major schedule compression. Conversely, complex and complicated projects can be artificially simplified resulting in loss of critical information and a failure to deliver key requirements. Whilst this can happen at any stage of a project, a significant change at project commencement fundamentally affects outcomes and may indicate:
An insufficient understanding of the project objectives and its link to the organisational strategy.
Poor problem exploration and its definition.
A weak business case supported by biased benefit logic and estimation. Optimism bias has been observed to be a key problem.
Insufficient knowledge and experience of the resources leading the project.
Lack of required variety within the project leadership and delivery teams and importantly absence of the necessary culture and leadership to support use of the variety.
The project team may not be designed to deal with the project complexity and the environment it is operating in.
To increase the probability of project success, some of the key mitigations are to ensure that:
a diverse project team is formed and led by leaders with proven capabilities required for the given environment.;
the relationship between project success, benefits, objectives and requirements have been developed and agreed;
sufficient exploration of problem space and investment options has been undertaken;
benefits realisation is planned, and delivery tracked with clear accountabilities;
viable project team has been designed and empowered; and
an effective governance system is in place to treat problems early.
In summary, starting a project based on “Just deliver the project as requested” without a clear understanding of its alignment to the organisational strategy, is unlikely to deliver the benefits being sought. In addition, biases in defining investment options and analysis can fundamentally affect project complexity and set-up the project for failure. Examples of such biases include but are not limited to cognitive bias (“What you see is all there is!”), optimism bias (tendency to overestimate likelihood of positive outcomes) and confirmation bias (tendency to favour ideas that confirm what one believes).
To deal with uncertainties, the project team should be a viable system in itself led by capable leaders with demonstrated project management knowledge, skills and experiences in delivering successful outcomes. - Roshan Pattni